Why the OECD raised its 2026 growth forecast while warning about inflation

A stronger economy does not necessarily mean cheaper essentials. In its September 23 outlook, the OECD slightly raised its forecast for global growth in 2026 while raising its inflation forecasts for this year and next, Reuters reported.

The figures are revisions to forecasts, not changes already measured in anyone’s income or bills. The 2026 growth upgrade is small: the OECD still expects global growth to slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% this year. The table also covers two different measures—growth across the world economy and inflation across G20 economies—so its rows should not be read as a single measure of household finances.

One reason output is holding up better than the OECD expected in June is investment in AI infrastructure. Spending on data centres and semiconductors supports activity in the United States and technology exports from Japan and South Korea, according to Reuters’ account of the outlook. Such spending can add to an economy’s total output even while households face higher costs elsewhere. The growth figure says how much an economy produces; it does not say how affordable daily life feels.

Energy helps explain the less encouraging outlook for 2027. The OECD expects the commodity-price shock associated with the Middle East conflict to weigh on growth next year. Energy can affect households directly through what they pay for it and indirectly through businesses’ costs. Those channels help explain why growth and inflation forecasts can move in different directions, but the forecasts cannot predict a particular household’s bill.

The inflation figures require a second distinction. The OECD projects G20 inflation of 4.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. That would be a slower rate of price increases next year, not a return to earlier prices. And the 2027 forecast is 0.5 percentage point higher than it was in June. A revision to a broad inflation forecast is not an estimate of how much extra any one family will pay.

The outlook remains conditional. Reuters reports that the OECD warned of further energy-market instability and, separately, the risk of disappointing returns from AI investment. Neither risk is a measured result. For now, the September forecasts describe an economy receiving support from investment while higher energy costs continue to put pressure on its outlook.

Source

• Reuters, “OECD expects AI boom to help offset Middle East energy shock for now”, September 23, 2026.