Morocco’s provisional election result turns on 198 seats—and a 15.8 million voter roll

For Moroccans, the election’s immediate consequence is not that one party won control. It is that several parties must determine who can assemble the 198 seats required for a parliamentary majority—and that process will shape the next government.

The Interior Ministry’s preliminary results give the Authenticity and Modernity Party, or PAM, 97 of the House of Representatives’ 395 seats. The National Rally of Independents, or RNI, follows with 66; Istiqlal has 65; and the Justice and Development Party, or PJD, has 54. The announcement appears on Morocco’s government portal in official material carrying Interior Ministry and state news agency MAP reporting. The results remain explicitly preliminary.

Under Morocco’s constitutional system, the king appoints the prime minister from the party that wins the most seats, after which a coalition must be negotiated and a cabinet submitted for royal approval, according to Reuters reporting syndicated by MarketScreener. PAM’s first-place finish therefore matters, but its 97 seats leave it 101 short of a majority.

The coalition arithmetic

Readers can reproduce the central calculation with an ordinary calculator:

• PAM + RNI: 97 + 66 = 163
• PAM + Istiqlal: 97 + 65 = 162
• PAM + PJD: 97 + 54 = 151
• PAM + RNI + Istiqlal: 97 + 66 + 65 = 228
• PAM + RNI + PJD: 97 + 66 + 54 = 217
• PAM + Istiqlal + PJD: 97 + 65 + 54 = 216

Every two-party combination shown remains below 198, while each three-party combination crosses the threshold. These sums illustrate what is numerically possible; they are not evidence of negotiations, political compatibility or an agreed programme.

RNI, Istiqlal and PAM formed the governing majority after the previous election. A December 2021 report from Morocco’s state-affiliated public broadcaster SNRT recorded their leaders signing a coalition pact. Their provisional 2026 total of 228 would still provide a majority, but arithmetic cannot establish whether that arrangement will continue.

The distribution within parliament has changed substantially. The Inter-Parliamentary Union’s completed 2021 results gave RNI 102 seats, PAM 87, Istiqlal 81 and PJD 13. Against those figures, PAM’s provisional total is up 10, RNI is down 36, Istiqlal is down 16 and PJD is up 41.

The three parties in the 2021 pact fell from a combined 270 seats to a provisional 228, a decline of 42. The old grouping remains numerically possible, but its members would return with a different balance of strength.

Two denominators, two different comparisons

The official turnout headline also needs its denominator. An official update issued after polling closed reported 38.02% turnout. The later preliminary-results announcement put the figure at 38.08% and the electoral roll at approximately 15.8 million people.

Using those rounded official figures:

15,800,000 × 0.3808 = 6,016,640

That is approximately 6.02 million participants, consistent with the ministry’s description of nearly six million voters. Because the electoral-roll figure is rounded, the product is approximate too.

Reuters separately estimated that about 27 million Moroccans are of voting age. Comparing the calculated participant total with that broader estimate gives:

6,016,640 ÷ 27,000,000 ≈ 0.2228, or about 22.3%.

That 22.3% is not an alternative official turnout rate. “Voting age” is a broader and differently defined category than “registered voter,” and it does not necessarily identify everyone legally eligible to vote. Both the 27 million estimate and the electoral-roll total are approximate.

The comparison therefore cannot establish a precise national participation rate, count how many eligible people did not vote, explain why people were outside the electoral roll or measure public confidence. It reveals something narrower but useful: the official 38.08% describes participation among registered voters, while the calculated 22.3% places the approximate number of participants against a much larger voting-age population estimate. Keeping those denominators visible makes both the parliamentary outcome and the participation figures easier to understand without claiming more than the evidence supports.