Latvia’s United List heads for 42 seats—and a choice of partners

Latvia’s United List is on course for 42 of Parliament’s 100 seats after taking about 35.3% of the vote in the October 3 election. That gives Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ party a substantial lead, while leaving it needing other lawmakers’ support to turn promises on taxes, public services and defence into government policy. Official election results, Reuters.

The October 4 results remain provisional, with party-list returns received from 1,056 of 1,059 polling stations. Latvia First was projected to take 17 seats and Sovereign Power/Union of Young Latvians 15, well behind United List. Central Election Commission.

Adding the commission’s projected seats shows why several smaller parties could matter:

Each combination exceeds half of all 100 seats. These are numerical possibilities, rather than agreed coalitions; United List alone remains nine seats short of that majority. Provisional seat distribution.

The parties’ statements point toward starting with familiar partners. United List representative Edvards Smiltēns said on October 4 that the first approach would be to existing coalition partners. He also said campaign promises needed reviewing, including decisions about what could be afforded and what might be dropped. Latvian public broadcaster LSM.

National Alliance’s Jānis Dombrava told LETA that his party was willing to continue serving in a Kulbergs-led government. That establishes willingness to negotiate; it does not settle cabinet appointments or a joint programme. LETA, republished by PRESS.LV.

The formal process has two distinct requirements. Under Article 56 of Latvia’s Constitution, the president invites a person to form the government. Article 59 requires the prime minister and ministers to have Parliament’s confidence. Finishing first in the election does not itself complete either step. Latvia’s Constitution.

There is also a useful distinction between holding 51 seats and needing 51 votes. Article 24 generally requires more than half the votes of members present, subject to constitutional exceptions. With all 100 members present, that means 51 affirmative votes; with 90 present, it means 46. Coalition totals indicate potential strength, while attendance and actual voting determine whether a particular decision passes. Article 24.

For households, the negotiations matter because the parties bring different approaches to spending and services. United List’s programme calls for tighter control of public finances and less direct state intervention in the economy, while retaining healthcare, education and housing among its public-investment priorities. It also proposes a single healthcare appointment-booking system intended to reduce waiting times. Those are proposals, rather than demonstrated improvements. United List’s programme.

The Progressives emphasize greater investment in healthcare, education and housing construction, alongside lower taxes on low and middle wages. There is overlap in the services the parties want to support; agreement would still require choices about amounts, timing and financing. Progressives’ programme.

National Alliance proposes defence spending above 5% of gross domestic product—the country’s annual economic output—and continued support for Ukraine. Reuters reported that Kulbergs campaigned on maintaining defence spending at 5% and continuing Ukraine support. The commitments share a direction, but their spending targets differ. National Alliance’s programme, Reuters.

Those decisions also interest Latvia’s allies: the country has belonged to the European Union and NATO since 2004.

A negotiated promise still needs funding. Article 66 gives the cabinet responsibility for submitting the annual budget and Parliament responsibility for determining state revenues and expenditure. If Parliament approves spending outside that budget, it must also allocate funds to cover it. Article 66.