1 · Observed

Pacific ocean and atmosphere shift together

Warmer equatorial water is assessed alongside changes in winds, rainfall and pressure. This establishes El Niño; it does not specify every community’s weather.

2 · Forecast

The same event changes regional odds differently

AustraliaDrier in parts of the south and east; wetter across much of the west

Greater HornEnhanced October–December rainfall favoured in specified areas

Southern AfricaDrier seasonal conditions favoured across much of the region

Season, geography and other ocean patterns help shape these contrasts.

3 · Context

Local evidence determines vulnerability

Reservoir storage, soil moisture, crop calendars, infrastructure and existing hardship reveal who or what is exposed now.

4 · Decision

Match action to a defined trigger

Seasonal forecasts can justify preparation. Planting changes, aid releases and evacuations generally require updated local forecasts and observations.