IDB analysis projects uneven AI effects on Latin American and Caribbean economies

Sep 21, 8:10 PM UTC

Worker mobility separates projected wage gains from substantial losses

Forthcoming Inter-American Development Bank research estimates that broad AI adoption could make Latin America and the Caribbean’s economy 5.1% larger after a decade. Under limited adoption and small productivity gains, the estimated increase is only 0.3%. The wage scenarios depend heavily on whether workers can move into expanding sectors: wages rise an estimated 2.3%–5.3% when they can, but fall 13.5%–20.9% when they cannot. These conditional estimates illustrate how adoption and labour mobility shape possible outcomes; they are not forecasts of realized growth or wages. The full flagship report is due in November.

Reuters: AI could boost Latin America and Caribbean economy 5.1% but wages may fall, IDB says